The COP27 Egyptian Presidency issued a blunt retort to the US, EU and other developed countries at the ‘Pre-COP’ in Kinshasa, DRC last week, warning of a “crisis” if promises on finance are not kept. “Egypt’s COP27 Presidency urges the developed world to restore trust,” said a press release – citing the missed 2020 $100bn finance target. The picture is troubling – OECD data from July suggests $83.3bn was provided/mobilised in 2020, while the COP26 promise to double adaptation finance by 2025 is in doubt. Moreover, questions remain over South Africa’s energy transition finance plan (aka JET-P).
On the main three key metrics (impacts, GHG and finance), COP27 is a heavy lift. 2022 has already been a savage year for climate impacts with virtually all G20 countries hit hard, not to forget the devastation in Pakistan, Cuba and Bangladesh. Yet few major national climate plans (NDCs) were submitted by the UN 23 Sept deadline (Synthesis due Oct 21). Coal use spiked in 2022, says BNEF. Climate Action Tracker analysis that we are on track for 2.4C warming by 2100 looks unlikely to shift, perhaps tweaked slightly for India/Indonesia NDCs.
Brutal reminder
Anger is building, promising a spiky fortnight on the shore of the Red Sea. UN boss Antonio Guterres is fuming, judging by his comments at the Pre-Cop Kinshasa meeting: “While climate chaos gallops ahead, climate action has stalled,” he said, citing Hurricane Ian as a “brutal reminder that no country and no economy is immune from the climate crisis.” A deal on loss & damage will be the main litmus test for COP, he said.
Still, the EU and US seem unwilling to shift. Judging by the latest EU COP27 planning drafts, John Kerry’s comments in NY [it will cost trillions, who has that money] and Timmerman’s earlier in Sept [the moral argument doesn’t work on EU citizens] there is a substantial gap between what is being asked and what may be delivered. And with 4% of GDP at risk, funding will need to be above and beyond Denmark’s $13m. Good luck Germany & Chile, joint chairs of L&D talks in Sharm.
Brazil election runs on
Arguably the climate vote of 2022, Bolsonaro v Lula will roll on for another month after the socialist veteran failed to deliver a knockout in round one of Brazil’s presidential race. It’s a bitter blow for Amazon campaigners who say the fate of the world’s largest rainforest hangs in the balance. Under Bolsonaro, one million hectares were burnt in the past year alone, with ranchers and loggers moving in after his administration opened up vast tracts and slashed regulations.
Globally, the election is critical. The Amazon is edging towards a tipping point, environmentalists say, impacting water cycles and leading to ever longer, hotter and drier conditions. Violent conflict and murders of indigenous peoples have risen under Bolsonaro, with 176 dying in 2021. It’s also grim in the Senate, with a majority of the 30% of seats up for grabs going to Bolsonaro supporters. Ricardo Salles, former environment minister, also won a seat in Congress.
Assume loss & damage makes it onto the agenda at COP27 – something Ambassador Wael Aboulmagd indicated is likely in a late September presser. What then? Multiple proposals exist. E3G reckons a deal could include a finance plan “estimated to be as much as $290 – $580 billion a year by 2030.” Power Shift Africa wants a finance facility. IIED points out the money is only part of the issue – identifying who gets it is also hard. La Ruta Del Clima is calling for “climate reparations”. For a fascinating analysis, try this Carbon Brief webinar.
Financial reform
Amid the gloom, some hope. John Kerry met China’s foreign minister at UNGA77, offering hope bilateral talks may start again. Rhodium Group reckon Biden’s IRA climate plan will result in 32%-42% GHG cuts on 2005 levels by 2030 – so room to improve but positive. The EU is hinting it may hike its 55% GHG target later this (or early next) year. India’s draft energy plan (published in Sept 2022) says it’s vastly overachieving on solar and positive on coal use declining by 2030. In China, sectors that cover over 97% of GHG emissions now have specific emission-peaking plans.
Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottely is also bringing together global leaders to make a case for reforming the global financial architecture and making it fit for purpose. Mottley is proposing reforms that would enable the redistribution of finance to some of the most climate vulnerable countries. Overhauling the system that is pushing countries into debt distress by making long-term financing available for climate vulnerable countries through the redistribution of the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and increasing the investing capacity of MDBs are among proposals.
