Here is the summary of the ninth day of the World Leaders Summit in Glasgow on November 10, 2021:
Text for 1.5°C
Drafts of the main political documents due in Glasgow were delivered before 6am this morning. The CMA, CMP and COP texts are a second attempt at identifying grounds for a decision here. They will not be the final story – but they kick off the endgame here in Glasgow. The CMA text relates directly to the Paris Agreement, and for that reason is more relevant here. Use this text decoder to help assess what’s important as the morning unfolds.
First reactions
The text is a significant improvement on the Paris Agreement when it comes to mitigation and the 1.5°C target. Fossil fuels are named as a problem. There are timelines and deadlines for countries to return with new, enhanced targets by 2022 and 2023 aligned with 1.5°C. But, while the text is specific on GHG cuts, it’s less specific on finance, adaptation, and loss and damage.
CMA text highlights
- 30: Commitment for 196 countries to boost climate targets by 2023
- 33: Countries to submit net-zero targets & plans in line with Paris by 2022
- 36: Countries to accelerate coal phase-out and cut fossil fuel subsidies
- 44: Key finance line: Welcomes $100 billion delivery plan but no push to accelerate funding
*60: Loss & Damage recognised in main text: Important but lacks specific.
Work to do
“The text needs to be much stronger on finance and adaptation and needs to include real numbers in the hundreds of billions, with a delivery plan for richer countries to support less developed nations,” said Greenpeace head Jennifer Morgan. “On one side of the scales, it advances a detailed process for accelerating climate mitigation goals, but, on the other side of the scales, on finance and loss and damage, it is fuzzy and vague. The missed deadline for the $100 billion promise doesn’t get acknowledged – and this is a key ask from vulnerable countries,” said Power Shift Africa head Mohamed Adow.
Money money money
Ambition is not just about GHG cuts is the theme from increasingly influential African think tank director Mohamed Adow – an observer at these talks. In a series of tweets late Tuesday, he made the case for a “needs-based, long-finance goal consistent with a 1.5°C trajectory before 2025,” arguing that without green support and adaptation investment, poorer countries are in trouble.
Themes of the COP
Cash, cars, trees, coal – all get a mention today but cash is lightest on detail and is the key issue. PM Johnson is here to “energize” the process, officials say. References to a phase-out of fossil-fuel production and use beyond coal, or more simply oil and gas, is strikingly conspicuous by its absence.
Who’s opposed to the text
- Major polluters with poor non-1.5°C aligned climate plans will kick off
- Russia, Saudi Arabia won’t like the mention of net zero as too policy prescriptive, see below
- Australia won’t like the mention of an accelerated coal phase-out
- Developing countries wanting specifics on finance and adaptation will demand clarity
- Anyone not used to reading complex UN texts
Two futures
Analysts indicate these talks are at a fork in the road. The two potential routes were summed up in the Climate Action Tracker emissions assessment that landed yesterday. Either countries stick with current 2030 targets that leave the planet on track for a 2.4°C temperature increase by the end of the century, or they twist and hustle a plan to hike goals by 2023 or sooner.
To watch for
Watch for whether the EU will step out from the side lines and join with vulnerable countries to make a loud plea for ambition from this COP. Also important is whether the US soft power campaign – with AOC and Pelosi being the latest weapons deployed – achieved what it set out to do, namely providing a distraction from the longevity of the administration’s promises?
EU lacking effort
“Few, if any, EU governments are engaged in serious diplomacy.” The words of former EU climate chief Connie Hedegaard late last month still ring true. Brussels has engaged at COP26, joining the High Ambition Coalition but making little effort to push for a clear date by which countries return with tougher plans. “That silence indicates that US-EU are not pushing on this ambition in a way that is needed at the moment,” said WRI climate director David Waskow. “Nobody is willing to put a date on it except SIDS and LDC,” said E3G diplomacy lead Jenny Tollman.
Lack of Euros
Lack of EU finance is also an issue. The EU did offer $100 million to the Adaptation Fund, but Belgium, Austria and the Commission are said to oppose more ambitious long-term commitments. Germany and France also don’t like the 50-50 for adaptation finance.
Deja vu
One veteran observer who has been to every COP since 1995 was sanguine last night. “This is the stage where stuff starts flying around,” they said. “This is when everyone is keen to spin and set up for the blame game.” It means it will be an exciting, if tense, 72 hours, with the potential for one or two more final cover texts before the COP wraps up.
Article 6 texts
While political texts get much of the attention, the Article 6 texts (there’s three of them) came out in the wee early morning. After an initial review, it looks like most of the key battles are still in brackets or as options. For further information, please contact [email protected]
No San Jose principles
As outlined on an Article 6 Twitter space (recording here), the San Jose Principles coalition launched in 2019 is no longer in force. Countries like Germany, Costa Rica, Colombia and France forged some pretty tough lines on Article 6, but they seem to be totally absent in Glasgow. Rumour has it they’re planning something still to come but, so far, there’s not been much action.
Indecision
Time could be of the essence as Article 6 has landed in the hands of the ministers, with all the difficult – and highly political – issues still on the table, including corresponding adjustments, Kyoto Protocol transition and share of proceeds. If left too late a distasteful compromise could be on the cards. This playbook has delayed locking in Article 6 since Paris.
On the table
Check the latest Enhanced Transparency tables. This is the level of detail envoys are working on. Transparency experts are keen to host a briefing on this issue later today to tease out key elements.
Response Measures
The Response Measures strand of talks are to help big polluters cope with the shift off fossil fuels. Current text proposals suggest that with the number of brackets, different colours and additions suggest much is still needed to be worked out.
Saudi as blocker
Reports from this year’s IPCC report approval talks describe Saudi Arabia working to block efforts there too, making moves to water down the link between human activities and climate change and even greenhouse gasses and climate change. They instead preferred “natural processes” and found net-zero policy prescriptive. Nothing natural about that spin.
Car deal
Today’s car deal means one in every three cars sold will be zero-emission vehicles, massively raising the stakes for even the countries that haven’t signed the commitment. For example, over 60 percent of US car exports are now to geographies that have committed to reach 100 percent zero-emission car sales. Countries and companies that fail to rapidly electrify their car manufacturing this decade will lose their existing market share to competitors.
Autographed
See who signed up to the car deal. Absent were the major car manufacturing corporations like BMW and Toyota. But the EU’s Fit for 55 package delivered several first-time EU signatories including Croatia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Poland and Turkey. India, Canada and Ireland are the significant markets. Also key are emerging auto buyers in Africa – Rwanda, Kenya, Ghana – as well as Latin America’s major car markets – Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay. Volvo, Ford, Mercedes Benz, GM and Jaguar were on the go list along with a range of cities from Rome to Reykjavik.
Oil Slick
The European and Indian commitment alone will remove 4 million barrels a day of oil demand, roughly equivalent to UEA’s daily oil production.
Coming Up
- CAN International – 11:45am – Durdle
- COP President and UNSG Antonio Guterres – 1:45pm – Giant’s Causeway
- India on behalf of the BASIC countries – 4:15pm – Giant’s Causeway
- The launch of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance has moved to Thursday 12:45
