Image Source: COP 29
The 2024 COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan comes at a critical time for our planet, at the end of a year on course to being the hottest in 130,000 years.
While no UN summit can solve the climate crisis on its own, they can and do play an important role in setting the global agenda and sending strong market signals.
With that in mind, the Azerbaijan government has a clear responsibility to deliver a summit that builds on the COP28 UAE Consensus on phasing down fossil fuels and lays the financial foundations to accelerate the global transition to clean and safe energy.
These are the seven steps the Baku government should take in the summer of 2024 to meet the criteria of a successful COP.
1 – Oil, gas & coal: these talks at their heart are about climate change and a just and fair transition away from the causes of climate change. That means working towards a future without fossil fuels. Everyone knows you have huge gas supplies. No-one is blaming Baku for all the problems. But ignoring the elephant in the room does no-one a favour.
2 – Timeline: set out a timeline for the delivery of COP29. This means a clear timeline with expectations and political hooks so it looks like you have a plan and sequence for things to build upon each other towards “success” at COP (ministerial convenings where you expect countries to talk numbers, or events when you expect pledges to be made)
3 – Advice: it’s great news Azerbaijan has appointed a “Friends of the Presidency” who can quietly guide and shape what is being planned. France did this in 2015, the UK did it 2020-2021, UAE did it 2023. No one country has all the answers. By appointing and listening to this group of recognised experts you can avoid pitfalls and needless mistakes, drawing on decades of experience. But it is vital they engage continuously with them and negotiating groups: once or twice is not enough.
4 – Proactive: finance is the big deal to be done in COP29… but the money will not fall from the sky by itself. Get a grip of the finance talks. You are in charge. You can convene + organise. This will not happen on its own. You need to (i) appoint some ministers to lead the finance talks and (ii) start setting out where you feel a deal can be done. And (iii) the longer you keep talking trillions the more you set yourself up to fail. Manage expectations – and ideally try not to set up too many new funds – we don’t need more wallets, we do need cash.
5 – Strategic: COP29 will come round fast and you will quickly realise the multiple plans and strands of work you have laid out will be simply too much to manage. To quote Sultan Al Jaber… have a ‘laser focus’ on 2-3 elements you want to achieve, work for a balanced package that meets the asks of the +190 countries involved, appoint champions from business, government, culture and go for it.
6 – Delivery: a core element of the COP process is delivering what was agreed the year before. The UAE Consensus was agreed by 190 countries and it is now down to Azerbaijan to ensure that we start to see it bear fruit. You do not need to redesign the wheel. You do need to get the existing one rolling.
7 – Scrutiny: know that you will come under great scrutiny from the media and civil society in the coming weeks and months. This is what you signed up for. You can either lean into this, engage and communicate what the overarching goals are or you can get defensive and pursue a disengagement strategy. The latter represents a huge risk to Azerbaijan’s global image and should be avoided.
