The US election results are in: Donald Trump will lead the country once again. The former president and convicted felon declared victory Wednesday over Vice President Kamala Harris—less than one week before COP29 kicks off in Baku.
The energy transition is inevitable and accelerating in many countries, regardless of US political winds. During Trump’s last administration, the world saw American businesses, states and local governments step up to uphold U.S. climate action. In the immediate wake of the election, representatives from U.S. government, society, NGOs, academia, and elsewhere are indicating that this will once again be the case.
Here’s what experts say a Trump presidency will mean for this year’s COP—and beyond:
Laurence Tubiana, CEO, European Climate Foundation
The US election result is a setback for global climate action, but the Paris Agreement has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country’s policies. The context today is very different to 2016. There is powerful economic momentum behind the global transition, which the US has led and gained from, but now risks forfeiting. The devastating toll of recent hurricanes was a grim reminder that all Americans are affected by worsening climate change.
Responding to the demands of their citizens, cities and states across the US are taking bold action. America is All In accounts for 65 % of the population and 68% of GDP. This coalition – and other subnational actors worldwide – deserve a seat at the global table. Europe now has the responsibility and opportunity to step up and lead. By pushing forward with a fair and balanced transition, in close partnership with others, it can show that ambitious climate action protects people, strengthens economies, and builds resilience.
To be clear: the US election result is a blow in the fight against the climate crisis. The window to limit warming to 1.5°C is closing—these next 4 years are critical. But let’s not despair. The Paris Agreement has proven resilient, stronger than any one country’s policies (1/10)
— Laurence Tubiana (@LaurenceTubiana) November 6, 2024
Jennifer Morgan State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action, Germany
We will work with the next US administration wherever possible to strengthen the international rules based order and deal with shared security challenges, including the climate crisis. For Germany and the EU the transition to climate neutrality is a cornerstone of our future competitiveness. We therefore will work with all partners towards a level playing field in the race for green industries. We will continue to implement our climate laws and work with international partners across all levels of government, civil society and in the private sector on the swift and full implementation of the Paris Agreement.
Ana Toni, Secretary for Climate Change, Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, Brazil:
The fight against climate change is a long-term commitment of all governments and a necessity for humanity. National elections or geopolitical tensions can obviously affect global climate governance, but we have a collective responsibility to maintain and strengthen the international multilateral climate framework. Brazil will do its part and will continue to work with all governments, as well as all other relevant players from the private sector, subnational governments and civil society to pursue this goal.
Joint statement from America Is All In, the U.S. Climate Alliance and Climate Mayors, representing nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population and three-quarters of U.S. GDP through 24 governors, nearly 350 mayors, and thousands of public and private institutions.
We will not waver. We will not turn back. #WeAreAllIn
Read our joint statement: https://t.co/ryjMNQlkMJ pic.twitter.com/7Jq4hVCbv9
— America Is All In (@americaisallin) November 6, 2024
“America’s climate-leading states, cities, Tribal nations, businesses, and institutions will not waver in our commitment to confronting the climate crisis, protecting our progress, and relentlessly pressing forward. No matter what, we’ll fight for the future Americans demand and deserve, where our communities, our health, our environment, and our economy all thrive. We will not turn back.” [full statement]
Raila Odinga, Former Prime Minister of the Republic of Kenya and candidate for Chair of the Africa Union Commission
Actions of the United States on climate change at home and globally will shape how Africa, a continent that is least responsible for the climate crisis yet suffering most from climate impacts, will navigate its own development path, deliver energy access to over 600 million people who are without electricity access today. Climate negotiations at COP29 in Baku, coming on the back of US elections, is a perfect opportunity for the US to step up and be a global steward of the planet. At COP29, the US must lead from the front, and support the delivery of ambitious grants-based and highly concessional climate finance to the trillions of dollars required to meet the adaptation and mitigation needs of developing countries and compensate for losses of damages in a timely and transparent manner.
Christiana Figueres, UN climate chief 2010-2016
The result from this election will be seen as a major blow to global climate action, but it cannot and will not halt the changes underway to decarbonise the economy and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Standing with oil and gas is the same as falling behind in a fast moving world. Clean energy technologies will continue to outcompete fossil fuels, not just because they are healthier, faster, cleaner and more abundant, but because they undercut fossil fuels where they are at their weakest: their unsolvable volatility and inefficiency. Meanwhile, the vital work happening in communities everywhere to regenerate our planet and societies will continue, imbued with a new, even more determined spirit today. Being here in South Africa for the Earthshot Prize makes clear that there is an antidote to doom and despair. It’s action on the ground, and it’s happening in all corners of the Earth.
The result from this election will be seen as a major blow to global climate action, but it cannot and will not halt the changes underway to decarbonise the economy and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Standing with oil and gas is the same as falling behind in a fast…
— Christiana Figueres (@CFigueres) November 6, 2024
Izabella Teixeira, former environment minister of Brazil
There is no room for climate denialism in the context of the climate emergency. American society is co-responsible for global warming and, despite Trump’s victory, will undoubtedly be co-responsible for the solutions to the climate crisis.
Li Shuo, Director, Asia Society Policy Institute said:
The weight of this moment for climate action is immense. Baku will be the first true test of a global climate regime we’ve fought hard to build over the last decade. COP holds promise – but what happens after is what really matters. Nations are better prepared, and a unified, strong response is vital to reinforce climate commitments and multilateralism. China is leading the green energy race, but the US-China dynamic reveals the need for reflection on future relations – especially with Baku on the horizon.
What does a Trump win mean for COP29?
The incoming climate denier will loom large. But before panic sets in, we should examine the lessons from history.
The task at hand is for the rest of the world to show the value of multilateral climate cooperation.https://t.co/BWaERxbL4l
— Alex Scott (@AlexScottLondon) November 6, 2024
Bill Hare, CEO Climate Analytics, former IPCC author
The election of a climate denier to the US Presidency is extremely dangerous for the world. We are already seeing extreme damages, loss of life around the globe due to human induced warming 1.3°C. President Trump will not be above the laws of physics and nor will the country that he leads. If Trump follows through with his threat to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the biggest loser will be the United States. We have been there before – the US withdrawal in the first Trump presidency did not cause the Agreement to collapse, as some pundits predicted.
Unwinding US domestic action under a Trump administration will damage efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. The prospects of keeping open the 1.5C goal will ultimately hinge on the level of action taken by all other countries in the next few years and also on what the US does following the Trump presidency’s conclusion.
Mary Robinson, Former Chair, The Elders and former PM of Ireland
I sincerely hope that the recent hurricanes in the United States have caused President Trump to rethink his belief that climate change will create “more oceanfront properties.” It will only bring more death and devastation. It remains to be seen if he will once again isolate the U.S. by pulling out of the Paris Agreement.
The outcome of the U.S. elections should not be used as an excuse by world leaders to avoid taking action against climate change. We should redouble our efforts and prove that we can work together for the common good by delivering the necessary climate finance needed at the upcoming COP 29 in Baku.
Yao Zhe, Global Policy Advisor, Greenpeace East Asia
Once again, China finds itself at a pivotal moment. Expectations are high that China will join key nations in reassuring the world that climate action will continue. In practical terms, a new NDC that outlines clear actions to transition away from fossil fuels will provide the world with the reassurance it needs. Climate played a crucial role in stabilising US-China relations during the Biden time. The Trump administration may undo some of the climate diplomacy gains of recent years, but US-China climate cooperation will continue at the subnational level and among non-state actors.
Alden Meyer, Senior Advisor, E3G
In recent months, we’ve seen record flooding hit North Carolina and Kentucky – that won’t change with Trump – and neither will the clean energy revolution sweeping the US. The real question is: how will these two forces shape each other? The US has a history of unpredictable climate policy shifts. The world has adapted to American back-and-forth on climate before and must prepare to do so again. Clean energy isn’t just about climate: it’s tied to energy security, prices, and disaster resilience. To make meaningful progress, we need policies that connect these dots – food, water, inflation – with climate action.
Joyce Banda, Former President of Malawi:
The outcome of the US election is consequential for the climate. Efforts to fight against and mitigate climate change effects on the world, and developing countries in particular hang in the balance. As a global superpower, we expect the US to do the right thing for the sake of the world and generations to come.
Mitzi Jonelle Tan, Climate Justice Activist, Youth Advocates for Climate Action Philippines
Countries like mine are already enduring life-shattering climate impacts. Hope alone will not save us. Now more than ever, we need bold and decisive action rooted in climate justice. While the fossil fuel industry and leaders like Trump cling to a collapsing system, we cannot give in. We must not allow global climate cooperation to be undermined by any single leader or country. We must continue to organize and campaign to bring the end of the fossil fuel era. COP29 will be the first of many international gatherings where the world must come together and show what real leadership in this crisis looks like.
Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr, Mayor of Freetown and C40 Cities Co-Chair. See full statement
The climate crisis is a lived reality threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people across the Global South through fires, floods, food shortages and mass migration. Cities are vital to tackling this crisis and C40 mayors will continue to do so.
“Mayors and local leaders across the United States and the world remain committed to creating green jobs and economic growth in sustainable industries, protecting our communities from extreme weather, and addressing environmental justice and equity.
