What should Canada do?

1

Enhance its NDC to be 1.5 degree aligned by COP26:

  • Canada should present a new, more ambitious NDC of at least 60% GHG reductions below 2005 levels + net zero legislation that include carbon budgets, 5yrs interim targets, an expert panel that monitors implementation of the NDC. Mandatory TCFD
  • Canada must enhance international climate finance, reach USD$4 billion per year until 2025
2

Build a just and resilient recovery plan:

  • The first priority is to use fiscal power to help workers, communities and reinforce social safety nets
  • Create good paying jobs in the RE industry, support only companies that have net zero plans. Implement strong ZEV mandates
  • Stop funding fossil fuel subsidies and avoid using false solutions such as the expansion of LNG through investing in hydrogen
  • Implement UNDRIP
  • Legislate a Just Transition act to prepare workers for the shift to a clean economy

What you need to know about Canada?

  • Canada’s oil and gas industry accounts for 16% of Alberta’s GDP and just under 10% of national GDP. Canada’s oil and gas industry accounts for 16% of Alberta’s GDP and just under 10% of the national GDP. The sector is the fastest growing source of emissions in Canada. Governments continue to financially support the sector. We need explicit commitments to stop fossil fuel subsidies
  • Canada’s new climate plan, announced in December, includes a rise in the carbon price, currently set at $30 a tonne, and set to rise by $10 a year to $50 a tonne by 2022. With the new plan, after 2022 it will increase at $15 a year until it reaches $170 a tonne by 2030. But pricing carbon will require cross-Canada cooperation, including several provinces that have challenged federal jurisdiction over carbon pricing.
Recovery Measures to Highlight:

  • $10 billion investments on infrastructure for clean transport, digital connectivity, energy efficiency retrofits
  • $590 million in support of battery electric vehicle to create the largest manufacturing plant in North America
  • $600m for regional relief and recovery funding

Recent developments, threats and levers for action

Recent developments

  • The election of Joe Biden as USA President will influence Canada’s future climate policy both domestically and internationally, especially with a democrat senate. It will affect key sectoral policies such as ZEV mandates, infrastructure policy, trade, etc
  • It’s possible that PM Trudeau Government loses the trust of Parliament and Canada goes onto a snap election in the coming weeks, months. There is a risk that a Conservative Government gets elected. Under such scenario, one of the first thing the Conservatives might do is get rid of Trudeau’s green and just recovery agenda
  • Recent important investments
    – $10 billion investments on infrastructure for clean transport, digital connectivity, energy efficiency retrofits,
    – $590 million in support of battery electric vehicle to create the largest manufacturing plant in North America
    – $600m for regional relief and recovery funding
  • Canada has also made biodiversity and NBS a priority and joined the High Ambition Coalition for Nature during UNGA75
  • In 2020, the government put a new Net-Zero Accountability legislation in line with Canada’s objectives to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The bill would enshrine the net-zero target into law and establish binding five-year milestones to achieve it

Strengths

  • Speech of the Throne sends a progressive signal
  • Canadian society is generally asking for a resilient and just recovery

Opportunities

  • Canada has made direct linkages between its recovery plans and climate action
  • International pressure is needed to secure an ambitious policies that avoid the use of false solutions
  • There is opportunity to get more cities to sign up to the Race to Zero but more pressure on them is needed
  • With Biden’s victory and bold words on climate, there is an opportunity for North American alignment on climate-related policies and actions such as methane regulations, & electric vehicle production. There is also increased pressure on Canada to show greater ambition if the US presents an ambitious NDC.

Weaknesses

  • The oil and gas sector remains powerful and can influence the ambition of Canada’s new NDC
  • Transition pathways differ among onshore and offshore oil-producing regions, leading to political tensions over how best to support workers

Threats

  • There is a minority government and an election may be called in 2021
  • Canada’s economic and political stability is inextricably linked to US, our biggest trade partner

About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots

The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term.The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP26.

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