As COP29 got underway in Baku, some news headlines have focused on world leaders who skipped the summit, connecting this development with the election of Donald Trump in the US last week.
But what these headlines overlook is how the leaders of emerging economies are stepping up, quietly getting on with the hard work of transition.
This leadership is not just altruistic, but motivated by a real sense of opportunity. For countries like Brazil, China, India, and South Africa, the US election presents a chance to take advantage of the green transition.
Brazil, which will host next year’s COP30, released its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) last week, making them and the UAE, first movers. All countries are expected to release their NDCs by February 2025.
“The claims that multilateral climate action can’t deliver in light of the election in the US of president elect Donald Trump seem substantially overblown,” said Alex Scott, the Senior Associate Climate Diplomacy at ECCO. “In the last two days, we’ve seen the UAE and Brazil step up to present their new national climate plans. These big emitters have shown where their future prosperity lies: in faster emissions reduction.”
Brazil’s new and improved national climate plan targets reductions between 59% and 67%; it prioritises adaptation, has strong domestic policy plans, and reaffirms the country’s commitment to the COP28 deal to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy capacity, and double energy efficiency gains. What’s missing, according to experts, is specific timelines and steps on its transition away from fossil fuels.
“We urge the government to set more concrete sectoral targets, especially on energy, fossil fuel use, and deforestation,” said Scott. “This announcement, while a step in the right direction, reflects the imperfect yet persistent progress of climate diplomacy. In a landscape shaped by the uncertain trajectory of U.S. climate policy, Brazil has the opportunity to solidify its role in driving steady, multilateral climate action and be a champion for the renewable energy transition.”
Brazil has also been telegraphing its position to other countries: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told media this week that he phoned Trump after the latter’s win to discuss environmental issues, while Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin blasted Argentina’s recent decision to pull its delegation out of COP29. Kenyan President William Ruto and Mia Mottley, the Prime Minister of Barbados, co-authored an op-ed with French President Emmanuel Macron, published last week, making the case for expanding solidarity levies to mobilise climate finance for emerging countries.
Many emerging economies have already made strong investments in renewable energy in the leadup to this year’s COP. Estimates show that the Global South’s renewable energy potential is 400 times greater than its fossil fuel potential. Ahead of COP29, India said it would add a record amount of renewables this year. China, meanwhile, increased its investment in clean energy technology by 40% in 2023 compared to 2022, creating a larger share of growth than any other sector that year.
A report out of Johns Hopkins, released last week, sets out the opportunity for these countries in the event of a Trump Administration windback. The US could lose up to 50 billion USD in exports whereas $80 billion in investment opportunities would be created other countries.
Meanwhile, Brazil, which ranks sixth in the world for investments in the energy transition, could scale its low-carbon energy supply investments by $1.3 trillion between now and 2040, according to BloombergNEF. India could go from being a net importer of clean tech to a net exporter in the next ten years, with exports worth $30 billion annually.
“It is essential that the entire world has equally ambitious NDCs, that we create the roadmap for the transition to the end of fossil fuel use, that we create the roadmap to end deforestation, the roadmap where no one is left behind,” said Marina Silva, Minister of the Environment and Climate Change of Brazil.
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