What should UAE do?
It is unlikely that UAE’s stance against climate action will change because of its reliance on oil revenues:
- All UAE announcements lack information on scope, target architecture, and transparency. The UAE needs to specify whether it covers CO2 emissions only or all greenhouse gases. It also needs to provide information on the assumptions taken for actual emissions reductions and removals.
- As of July 2023, the UAE has yet to submit a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC. The UAE needs to improve its net zero target in terms of transparency, as it lacks detailed information. There are also uncertainties around the extent to which carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be used.
- The UAE must clarify and quantify the usage and impact of CCS usage. Plans are even less clear when it comes to the use direct air capture (DAC) and sequestration (CCUS), as they provides no transparent or specific information on carbon dioxide removals.
- The UAE provides no information on its intention to cover international aviation and shipping, these sectors should be included in all UAE announcements and targets the country being a major hub for air and sea transport.
- Finally the UAE needs to put forward substantially improved climate policies in order to explain hos it plans to reach it’s new NDC targets.
What you need to know about UAE?
- In October 2021 the UAE announced its intention to reach net zero emissions as part of the UAE Net Zero 2050 strategic initiative. As of July 2023, the UAE has yet to submit a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC but it plans to submit one ahead of COP28 according its latest NDC.
- The NDC mentions many of the policies and strategies that underpin the 2030 target. This includes the UAE’s National Energy Strategy 2050, which aims for 44% of renewable and 6% of nuclear energy in installed electric capacity by 2050, while reducing final electricity demand by 42–45%.
- This strategy was recently updated to remove its previous target of 12% of coal capacity by 2050, which is now replaced by an increased fossil gas capacity from 38% to 50%. This updated strategy continues to be inconsistent with the need to reach net-zero CO2 emissions globally by 2050, due to the continued long-term reliance on fossil gas.
Recent developments, threats and levers for action
Recent developments
- The UAE submitted an updated NDC in July 2023 after having already strengthened its NDC target in 2022. With the UAE’s emissions still set to increase by 2030.
- The UAE’s plan to spend $54 billion on renewable energy is positive, but it’s three times smaller than the amount ADNOC intends to invest in oil and gas expansion.
- ADNOC announced in 2022 the discovery of about 80 trillion cubic feet of shallow gas reserves between the emirates of Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Strengths
- Strong potential for renewables.
- Willingness to lift subsidies.
- The region most diversified economy (bit still heavily relying on fossil fuels extraction).
About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots
The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, the Ukraine-Russia war and growing climate change impacts, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term. The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP28.
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