Skip to main content

What should Saudi Arabia do?

1

Enhance NDC to be 1.5 degree aligned by COP28:

  • Communicate the BAU range of the NDC targets.
  • Clarify the contribution of exported oil to local KSA’s GHG emissions.
  • Optimise the water cycle including desalination. Increase efforts in economic diversification away from fossil fuel extraction and develop low carbon economic sectors
  • Optimise cooling and district cooling through a green building code and building retrofits as well as using recycled water for district cooling instead of desalinated water.
  • Complete plan to cut all fossil fuel subsidies.
  • Transform KSA’s energy mix through more ambitious targets for renewables despite lower incentives to do so because of oil prices and strengthen implementation.

What you need to know about Saudi Arabia?

  • Saudi Aramco has contributed more than any other company to global carbon dioxide emissions since 1965. It is the world’s most profitable company, with nearly twice the earnings of number-two company Apple in 2018.
  • The listing of Saudi Aramco in December 2019 could open the state-owned company to increased international scrutiny, including around climate-related issues.
  • SABIC (Saudi Basic Industries Corporation) is a chemical and petrochemical manufacturing company which 70% is owned by Saudi Aramco. In October 2019 SABIC merged with two other Saudi petrochemical companies, Sadaf and Petrokemya.
  • Yasir al-Rumayyan, former head of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund was installed as Aramco chairman and is likely to bring a more finance-driven approach to managing the company.
  • Saudi citizens feel a sense of pride in Aramco as their national champion and the heart of their economy.
  • There has been a visible absence of grassroots protests, including youth activism, against climate change in most of MENA, which stands in contrast with recent vocal youth climate strikes in the West.
  • The Arab Youth Climate Movement (AYCM) is an organization that emerged leading up to the COP18 in Doha, Qatar, in 2012. It is the largest climate advocacy group in the MENA region with chapters in over 15 Arab countries. AYCM activities are not on the front pages of global media outlets, but they have quietly made some inroads in MENA since 2012. In KSA, AYCM activities are limited to raising public awareness about climate change and the conservation of energy.

Recent developments, threats and levers for action

Recent developments

  • China and Saudi Arabia are deepening cooperation on oil, moving away from the US dollar to trade in yuan and working on oil contracts denominated in the Chinese currency.
  • The Saudi Energy Minister has dismissed the IEA roadmap, which would limit the average increase in global temperatures to 1.5 Celsius.
  • NEOM (the new city under construction in northwest Saudi Arabia) announced a 5bn hydrogen-based ammonia plant project at the World Hydrogen MENA conference, held in Dubai in March 2022.
  • The UAE and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement in 2016 with Russia on tightening global oil production, giving rise to what is known as OPEC+.
  • Despite recent requests from the United States, Great Britain and other countries, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi refuse to step out of the agreement and increase production.
  • KSA is OPEC’s swing producer, cutting oil production to balance markets when needed.

Strengths

  • Strong potential for renewables
  • Willingness to lift subsidies as part of an austerity plan

Opportunities

  • KSA’s existential urge for economic diversification away form oil revenues should be leveraged to improve the countries NDCs.
  • Post Covid-19 low oil prices increase pressures towards economic diversification.
  • Potential major Hydrogen player

Weaknesses

  • Historical reliance on oil revenues.
  • Lack of freedom of expression and democratic institutions and hence, absence of grassroots climate movements.
  • Renewable energy projects are still a limited fraction of the total energy mix.
  • Far from hydrogen markets and no existing pipelines for transportation

Threats

  • Failure of economic diversification strategies (KSA is following the non-oil model of Dubai which cannot yet be considered a diversification success).
  • Current low oil prices disincentive the tightening of renewables targets.
  • Regional conflicts and geopolitical instability.

About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots

The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, the Ukraine-Russia war and growing climate change impacts, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term. The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP28.

Learn More