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What should Italy do?

1

Enhance NDC to be 1.5 degree aligned by COP28:

  • Strenghten the final NECP due by June 2024 to make it fully in line with the EU at least 55%
  • Submit the 2050 LTS, officially committing towards net zero emissions by 2050
  • End fossil fuels subsidies by 2025
  • Make TCFD guidelines compulsory
  • Ensure the implementation of the coal phase out by 2028 at the latest with no further delays
  • Further scale up international climate finance to reach a fair share of at least €4 billion per year by 2025
  • Ensure that the lessons learnt from the energy crisis are correctly reflected into the new NECP thus allowing for an innovative approach turning into an opportunity for concrete transition towards a climate resilient economy
  • Adopt a climate law or approve the NECP with a binding legal instrument – make sure decarbonisation is a driver of the industrial strategy
2

Build a just and resilient recovery plan:

  • Ensure funds allocated for EVs charging infrastructure are spent and a critical raw materials strategy is developed
  • Support green hydrogen deployment only
  • Exclude all fossil fuels from public investment
  • Stop public support for new gas infrastructure

What you need to know about Italy?

  • Despite having overachieved its 2020 EU target, Italy’s emissions in 2021 show a non-decreasing trend especially in the building and transport sectors.
  • Almost 80% of emissions coming from the energy sector, i.e. combustion of fuels. Coal phase out in the power sector has been delayed to 2028.
  • Unclear strategy for fossil gas phase out in the longer term.
  • Government committed to reach 65% of electricity share from RES by 2030 through the latest draft of NECP, though not in line with the G7 objective of a fully or predominantly decarbonised power sector by 2035
Recovery Measures to Highlight

  • Tax credits for energy efficiency measures, though measure challenged for economic reasons
  • Support for EVs purchases (as well as oil and diesel Euro6) and EV infrastructure
  • No explicit climate conditions especially for transport and energy efficiency in buildings led to very little or no emissions reductions to date

Recent developments, threats and levers for action

Recent developments

  • Italy is submitting the draft updated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) to the EC according to the EU governance on climate and energy. The final version of the NECP is due by June 2024. The document contains the latest policies and measures Italy is willing to adopt in order to reach its 2030 target. The document reaffirms that most issues in reaching the 2030 target are linked to lack of effectiveness of P&Ms in the transport, building, agricolture sectors. The draft though refers of a consultative process meant for tackle those issues and better target policies and measures, in the path leading to the final version of the document in June 2024.
  • A new right-wing Government took office in October 2022. The new premier Giorgia Meloni signed the centre-right declaration for climate action.
  • The 2022 energy crisis led to signing new gas contracts with old and new natural gas suppliers, in particular in the Mediterranean region, the Middle East and Africa, as well as investments in floating LNG terminals which might lead to carbon lock in if not assessed against climate objectives
  • The Bank of Italy is becoming a more progressive actor in calling for the need to climate risk disclosure and strengthening green finance
  • Italy has been a champion of a green recovery in Europe. Energy efficiency, renewable energies, hydrogen and sustainable mobility are key priorities. However, despite Stellantis has been vocal towards the full electrification of the produced fleet by 2030, Italy is lagging behind on electric mobility compared to Eu and Chinese peers
  • Ensuring a just transition in the heavy industry and the automotive industry is key to deliver and maintain trust in the Green Deal. Unions are becoming progressive actors
  • Permitting rules for boosting renewable deployment being developed at EU level to be implemented

Strengths

  • Strong real economy of small & medium enterprises
  • Active civil society and youth movement
  • Increasing public awareness of climate risks and demand for green recovery

Opportunities

  • Implementation of the National Recovery Plan and its REPowerEU chapter
  • Implementation of the EU Fit for 55 package
  • Negotiations around the new Green Deal Industrial Plan package and opportunities for innovation and clean tech Revision of the NECP 2030
  • Italian G7 Presidency in 2024
  • Adoption of a climate law

Weaknesses

  • Weak political leadership and weak public administration structure
  • Weak media system on energy and climate made worse by political messaging against climate-related policies towards 2024 EU elections
  • Lack of philanthropic support for national and international climate policy

Threats

  • Opposition from the oil&gas industry (ENI, SAIPEM, SNAM)
  • A negative narrative and lack of political support to the adoption of the final chapters of the Green Deal package and for new climate related legislations in view of the 2024 EU elections
  • Less support for climate policies linked to social exclusion and reduced quality of life

About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots

The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, the Ukraine-Russia war and growing climate change impacts, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term. The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP28.

Check other Snapshots