What should Italy do?

1

Enhance NDC to be 1.5 degree aligned by COP26:

  • Review the 2030 National Energy and Climate Plan, to be in line with the EU at least 55% target
  • Review the LTS with the new 2030 target
  • Ensure the implementation of the coal phase out plan by 2025 without new gas investment
  • Commit to an end-date of ICE by 2035
  • End fossil fuels subsidies by 2025
  • Make TCFD guidelines compulsory
  • Make climate core of G20 Presidency agenda
  • Ensure the implementation of the coal phase out plan by 2025
2

Build a just and resilient recovery plan:

  • Invest in a national EVs charging infrastructure and a national battery industry supply chain
  • Support green hydrogen only
  • Exclude all fossil fuels from public investment
  • Stop public support for new gas infrastructure
  • Stop public support for new ICE cars

What you need to know about Italy?

  • Italy has achieved its EU 2020 emissions and renewable targets 3-4 years in advance but is lacking behind on energy efficiency. Pre-Covid, emissions from the transport and gas sectors were on the rise
  • Gas and oil are responsible for 90% of CO2 emissions. Coal is responsible for 10%. Coal phase out in the power sector expected for 2025. Bigger risk is coal-to-gas switch with over 3GW of new gas proposed
  • 70 billion to the green economy (or 105 billion including zero-carbon rail) in its latest draft national recovery plan
Recovery Measures to Highlight

  • Tax credits for energy efficiency measures
  • Support for EVs purchases (as well as oil and diesel Euro6)
  • No climate conditions in rescue packages to date
  • At least 37% of the €209 billion from NextGenerationEU fund expected to go to green
  • 70 billion to the green economy (or 105 billion including zero-carbon rail) in its latest draft national recovery plan

Recent developments, threats and levers for action

Recent developments

  • Italy holds the Presidency of the G20 this year, and will co-host COP26. Delivering a revised Italian plan before or at the G20 Leaders summit and ahead of the COP26 would strongly enhance Italy’s leadership and credibility.
  • The G20, in particular, is a key process to build global cooperation and prevent further divisions.
  • Prime Minister Draghi has put climate action at the heart of his agenda
  • Domestically, new rules for renewable deployment, establishing energy communities, and new energy efficiency incentives for building renovation.
  • ENEL, the state-controlled electricity utility, is transforming & setting industry benchmarks although a faster pace is needed for closing coal assets and avoiding a coal-to-gas switch. The biggest risk for the energy transition is a carbon lock-in from new gas power stations (over 3GW proposed)
  • Ensuring a just transition in the heavy industry (in particular steel, chemicals and cement) and the automotive industry is key to deliver and maintain trust in the Green Deal. Unions are becoming progressive actors
  • Italy has been a champion of a green recovery in Europe. Energy efficiency, renewable energies, hydrogen and sustainable mobility are key priorities. However, Italy is lagging behind on electric mobility and battery supply chain compared to European and Chinese peers
  • The Bank of Italy is becoming a more vocal and progressive actor in calling for the need to climate risk disclosure and strengthening green finance

Strengths

  • Strong real economy of small & medium enterprises
  • Active civil society and youth movement
  • Increasing public awareness of climate risks and demand for green recovery
  • Progressive Government on climate and energy

Opportunities

  • National Recovery Plan
  • G20 Presidency in 2021
  • Co-host of COP26 in 2021

Weaknesses

  • Weak political leadership and weak public administration system
  • Weak media system on energy and climate made worse by recent collapse of government

Threats

  • Opposition from the gas industry (ENI, SAIPEM, SNAM)
  • Opposition from the car industry to switch to electric mobility

About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots

The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term.The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP26.

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