What should Indonesia do?

1

Enhance its NDC to be 1.5 degree aligned by COP26:

  • Peaking GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) in 2020
  • Ensure 2030 emissions are 5% below 2010 levels
  • Achieve net-zer0 in second half of the century
  • Play an active role in leading coalitions for and developing strategies aimed at getting an agreement on Article 6 and the carbon markets
2

Build a just and resilient recovery plan:

  • Clean energy: Expand moratorium on new coal fired power plants (CFPP) beyond Java; cancel CFPP in the pipeline; expand fossil-to-clean target (currently 13 GW);  continue phase out of petroleum subsidies
  • RE: accelerate RE uptake to achieve at least 23% in total energy supply by 2025; use economic recovery stimulus to accelerate utility and rooftop solar; A transition towards RE would also lead to net gains in employment, accelerate technological progress, and better public health
  • Energy intensity: 35% below 2018 levels
  • Introduce carbon pricing
  • Land-use: Make permanent the moratoriums on forest and peat lands, and on new palm oil concessions; 1 million ha + yearly in reforestation by 2024; increase land productivity by 4% yearly
  • Introduce a blue carbon target such as targets accounting for subterrestrial carbon sequestration
  • Waste: A solid waste management policy with a 2030 milestone, to reduce waste generation by 30% by 2045
  • Stop providing government support to the coal sector and delay a necessary transition

What you need to know about Indonesia?

  • Indonesia’s current NDC: 29% reduction in GHGs below business as usual (BAU) in 2030 (unconditional) and 41% reduction (conditional on international support)
  • Indonesia did not meet the 2020 deadline to submit an updated, enhanced NDC. It now plans to submit it in the first semester of 2021, potentially with no increased ambition other than to add blue carbon and adaptation, and to explain its NDC implementation roadmap in more detail
  • In 2017, Indonesia had achieved a 19.2% reduction in GHG emissions (including land-use change and forestry) relative to BAU by 2030 for that year
  • Stronger climate targets can help boost economic growth Ambitious climate scenarios from the Planning Ministry’s Low Carbon Development Initiative (LCDI) Report result in 6+% GDP growth with GHG reductions of 43% and 48% below BAU by 203., Both scenarios depend on additional international support & finance
Recovery Measures to Highlight:

Recent developments, threats and levers for action

Strengths

  • Successful implementation of its current NDC and likely overachievement
  • LCDI Report will inform policy (to be used as input into next 5-year economic plan)

Opportunities

  • Incorporating LCDI into recovery plans, especially as MoF is increasing deficit cap to 5.7% in 2021; with more government spending, there is opportunity to incorporate clean energy investments
  • Indonesia will be hosting the G20 in 2022

Weaknesses

  • Obstacles faced in the implementation of planned policies
  • Government is also managing the COVID pandemic, which has exacerbated the gap between domestic real economy progress and fulfilling Paris commitments
  • Additional institutional, technological and political capacity is needed to achieve LCDI (lack of buy-in in across government agencies)

Threats

  • Disregard of climate, environment in economic recovery hindering LCDI momentum
  • Deregulation as part of Omnibus Law threatens sustainability of forests and peatlands
  • Biodiesel subsidies risk increased use of pure Crude Palm Oil (CPO) for biodiesel blending for domestic demand if unsustainable agricultural practices continue

About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots

The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term.The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP26.

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