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What should France do?

France must systematize the operationalization of all the components of its strategic climate action framework. It must transform its economic policy, including budgetary, fiscal, commercial, industrial and employment policies, mobilize the necessary resources and funding, and support the most vulnerable in a spirit of just transition, while avoiding maladaptation.
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Enhance NDC to be 1.5 degree aligned by COP28

  • Paris agreement and Kunming Montreal global biodiversity framework
  • Implementation of the Kumming-Montreal framework through national biodiversity strategies and action plans and at the European Union level
  • Enhance NDC to be 1.5 aligned by COP28
  • Adopt a revised domestic target of at least -55% gross emissions reduction by 2030
  • Provide a climate-aligned response to the energy crisis Stop public spending that is harmful to people, climate and nature and stop socially-blind subsidies to fossil fuel Invest more in renewables energy and adopt a law that is more ambitious for France to reach its renewable target.
  • Adopt a more ambitious energy saving plan that require more efforts from private sector and systemic change rather than small gestures at the individual level
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Build a just and resilient recovery plan:

  • End direct support for fossil fuel projects overseas at an earlier date
  • Respect its international commitments in terms of human rights, including the rights of ecologists, as the UN notes a growing trend towards the stigmatization and criminalization of individuals and civil society organizations who raise awareness of the consequences of climate change”.

What you need to know about France?

France is particularly exposed to the consequences of global warming, but is not ready to cope. Adaptation must move from the reactive mode and become transformative, by anticipating future changes on several time scales: years, seasons and shorter extreme events. Average warming in France of +1.9°C over the last decade (2013-2022) is higher than global warming of +1.15°C (1.00°C – 1.25°C) over the same period.

  • France included the 2050 carbon neutrality objective in its 2019 Climate and Energy Law, in line with its long term strategy. However, its 2030 emissions reduction target remains insufficient, at -40% compared to 1990. (the law will be updated in fall)
  • Climate-unfriendly expenditures have significantly increased in 2022 due to the tariff shield, representing €80 billion in cumulative public spending for the period 2021-2023, with €43 billion expected in 2023.
  • Fiscality on fossil fuels varies widely depending on sectors and uses, with a significant impact on emissions and public finances, without sufficient justification and evaluation, and with little visibility on its alignment with climate objectives
  • Greenhouse gas emissions in France decreased by 2.7% in 2022 compared to 2021. The reduction in emissions in 2022 is the result of significant decreases in the building and industry sectors, partially offset by increases in the energy transformation and transportation sectors. It is partly due to situational factors (including a mild winter reducing heating needs) but also due to measures of austerity in response to rising energy prices and the Government’s austerity plan.

Recent developments, threats and levers for action

Recent developments

  • The new government created the National Council of the Ecological Transition and 2 ministers for the climate transition. Several laws are being drafted in order to respond to the climate crisis.
  • The Government’s ecological planning has been coordinated since July 2022 by the General Secretariat for Ecological Planning (SGPE) under the authority of the Prime Minister.
  • The Five-Year Programming Law on Energy and Climate (LPEC) must set France’s new climate objectives in line with the objectives of the European Union (EU) and its international commitments.
  • The French strategy for energy and climate will need to be quickly adopted and implemented for each emitting sector and at the regional level. It should also specify France’s contribution to the commitment of reducing global methane emissions by 30% by 2030.
  • The first guidelines work to achieve our goals has been presented by the SGPE. This is a strong work, but there are still missing at least 50% of the measures to achieve the proposed objectives
  • The commitment made in COP26 to end international funding of fossil fuel was translated into the budget law in September 2022.

Strengths

  • Strong governance structure to accelerate the ecological transition
  • Climate-aligned opposition MPs have increased in the new national assembly

Opportunities

  • Planned laws to accelerate the ecological transition should be adopted in the coming months. The National Low Carbon Strategy should be reviewed with new targets for the coming years.
  • The implementation of the SGPE which allows real interministerial work
  • France is attempting to play a leadership role in the transformation of the global financial architecture, notably with the June 2022 summit on a new financial pact.

Weaknesses

  • Lack of ambition in the adoption of climate legislation, which does not enable France to meet its climate targets
  • Parliamentary instability that prevents to adopt real in depth-measures to address the climate crisis”
  • Short-term response to the energy crisis that is translating into an increase of subsidies in fossil fuel

Threats

  • Growing push back on environmental measures due to economic crisis
  • Social tensions due to the crisis and lack of social justice measures
  • Polarization of the debate around the ecological transition with ecologists being perceived as being restrictive and against economic growth.
  • The rise of the far extreme Right and the sidelining of climate issues

About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots

The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, the Ukraine-Russia war and growing climate change impacts, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term. The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP28.

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