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What should the EU do?

1

Enhance its NDC to be 1.5 degree aligned by COP28:

  • Raise its annual climate financing by about €350 billion.
  • Offer political support to leading cities committing to -65%.
  • Step up climate foreign policy to advance conversations on joint transition key global South partners on NDC increase & climate cooperation.
  • Member states to prepare fair contribution to international climate finance, GCF replenishment ahead of COP28, comply with the annual USD 100bn commitment to developing countries.
2

Build a just and resilient recovery plan:

  • Strengthen funding criteria, apply EU taxonomy to qualify what is “green”, and “do no significant harm” principle for entire funding.
  • Commit that recovery support and debt relief will incentivise developing countries to deliver SDGs.
  • Significant investments in public transport, green infrastructure, and building renovations to enable the transition. Boost transformational power of urban areas.
  • Exclude fossil subsidies  funding for fossil-fuel intensive sectors should be conditional on clear transition plans to achieve climate goals.

What you need to know about the EU ?

Several Member States had adopted national climate laws before the adoption of the EU Climate Law. Some have set higher 2030 targets or aim to reach climate neutrality sooner than 2050.

  • The March 2023 Council conclusions called on EU climate diplomacy to reinforce cooperation and partnerships with third countries, and to establish new energy partnerships. The Council considers the requirement of phasing out all unabated fossil fuels before 2050 and a ‘near-term’ peak in their consumption, while recognising a transitional role for gas. It calls for an immediate end to investments in new coal infrastructure, however, refrains from a similar call for oil and gas financing. It confirms its commitment to the USD 100bn goal
Recovery Measurements to Highlight

  • 30% Next Generation EU (EU recovery package) to be earmarked for climate (France 30%, Germany around 33%)
  • Countries seeking money from recovery fund likely to need to show 37%-40% of their resilience & recovery plans earmarked for climate (under discussion)

Recent developments, threats and levers for action

Recent developments

  • 1 February: Green Deal Industrial Plan (GDIP) with four pillars (regulations still under negotiation): Regulatory environment (NZIA, CRMA, Electricity Market Design), Financing, Skills, Trade (FTAs, other forms of cooperation , explore Critical Raw Materials Club, Clean Tech/Net-Zero Industrial Partnerships).
  • 21 February: RePowerEU
    • Increase resilience, security, sustainability of EU energy system by reduced dependence on fossil fuels, diversification of energy supplies, renewables, energy efficiency, energy storage capacity.
    • Expected to increase emission reduction to ‘almost 57%’ by 2030, compared to 55% target.
  • 30 March: FF55 Update: provisional agreement to raise share of renewable energy in EU energy consumption to 42.5% by 2030 with additional 2.5% indicative top up.
  • 20 June: “Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform” (STEP) proposed to support EU leadership on critical technologies (instead of “Sovereignty Fund”).
  • 30 June: revised National Climate and Energy Plans (NCEPs) submitted by members states.
  • 12 July: Nature Restauration Law approved by EP against conservative parties opposition. MEPs to enter negotiations with Member States for a compromise text.
  • Proposal for the Green Claims Directive, addressing greenwashing concerns, EU’s first rule set covering labels of organic food, fuels, emissions of cars, energy eff. of products, sustainability reporting of the companies based in the EU and outside the EU that target EU consumers.
  • European Sustainability Reporting Standards adopted in 31st of July for companies subject to the CSRD.

Strengths

  • Successful implementation of current NDC; LTS submitted
  • Climate leader with a strong economic and R&D base
  • Largest international donor and partner for development

Opportunities

  • Green Deal Industrial and Global (Gateway) Agendas
  • EU position as largest single market and one of largest economy = lever for aligning trade with climate and biodiversity objectives
  • Transition accelerated by exit from Russian fossil fuels
  • Mandatory and voluntary reporting frameworks with greater accountability

Weaknesses

  • Conservative and right wing anti Green Deal populist trend, and eurosceptic populist agendas
  • Institutional challenges, policy limitations, limited fiscal space and missing funding at EU level
  • Complex internal politics within and among Member States

Threats

  • European Parliament elections 2024
  • War in Ukraine, inflation, low growth, EU single market level playing field at risk
  • Inflation, low growth, EU single market level playing field at risk
  • Anxieties around supply chains leading to de-risking strategies with too heavy focus on resilience
  • Geopolitical instability in the EU´s eastern and southern neighbourhoods distracting away from climate, creating energy supply crisis
  • Migration crisis and (staged) coups in Sahel to distract away from climate

About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots

The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, the Ukraine-Russia conflict and subsequent climate impacts and global economy effects, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term.The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP28.

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