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What should China do?

  • Invest in low-carbon infrastructures: RE, RE-supporting grid, zero-emission transport, building renovation, low-carbon urbanization
  • Stop new coal plants at home
  • Re-open channels for dialogues with US, EU, and global south partners after long COVID lockdowns.

What you need to know about China?

  • Current NDC (updated in 2021): CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060; to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% from the 2005 level, to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25%, to increase the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level, and to bring its total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030
  • China is on track to overachieve its existing targets. The real question is by how much. There will be a major difference between an emission peak in 2029 and 2025.
  • The strength of China’s climate performance is the direct outcome of its industrial policy, which tends to offer “carrots”. But the country falls short in imposing “sticks”. As a result, decisive action on coal, methane, carbon pricing is still missing.

Recent developments

Recent developments

  • Climate momentum started to wane since H2 2021 and has declined further in 2022. China’s self-defeating zero COVID strategy is taking a significant toll on the country, including its economy. Slow growth and geopolitical challenges are diverting political attention away from the climate agenda. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is cementing the Chinese desire for more coal to ensure energy security.
  • Beijing is skeptical about the ability of western countries to deliver what they promised both in their NDC and finance commitments. US-China climate talks were put on hold in 2022 and have resumed with Kerry’s Beijing visit in July. The prospect of the Xie-Kerry engagement remains unclear. In the best case scenario, both sides may work toward a Xi-Biden summit taking place in November and deliver a joint agreement to be fed into COP28.

Strengths

  • A track record to deliver what’s promised
  • Competitive clean tech industry, predictable state support, rapid deployment of wind, solar, and EV
  • Disciplined top down political system, enabling fast action if the political will is in place
  • Successful implementation of current NDC and likely overachievement
  • Unilateral NDC enhancement and carbon neutrality commitment

Opportunities

  • Increasing climate impacts hopefully creating a new driver for action
  • Poor macro-economic performance making the government more reliant on its competitive clean tech industry
  • A relatively calm period (H2 2023) between the US and China and the Xi-Biden summit (Nov 2023) may create conditions for further climate action

Weaknesses

  • Power sector sees entrenched coal interest which makes decisive reforms challenging
  • Deep economic problems will consume political attention, pitting the environmental agenda against economic recovery

Threats

  • Major geopolitical incidents, unthinkable a few years ago but not anymore (in the form of a crisis across the Taiwan strait or others), could significantly derail the climate agenda in China as well as the rest of the world
  • 2024 US election and a Trump Presidency could make China feel further off the hook, putting its climate agenda in deep freeze for the better part of the 2020s

About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots

The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, the Ukraine-Russia war and growing climate change impacts, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term.The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP28.

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