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What should Brazil do?

  • Re-establish climate governance at the federal level
  • Establish an appropriate participatory process for updating your NDC
  • Submit an implementation plan and long-term strategy to the NDC
  • Not to approve new subsidies or extension of subsidies to coal and gas thermal power stations

What you need to know about Brazil?

  • Although nominally increasing the percentage of emissions cuts from 43% to 50% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, the NDC submitted in 2022 is still less ambitious than the one originally submitted in 2015. By applying the new 50% reduction target based on the Fourth National Communication, Brazil is expected to reach 2030 emitting 1,281 MtCO2e. That corresponds to 73 MtCO2e above the figure that had been promised in 2015.
  • Brazil continues to backslide from its previous 2015 NDC, violating the Paris Agreement’s progression principle
  • The bill that creates the Brazilian regulated carbon market is advancing in Congress, with quality and incorporating the recommendations made by civil society and the private sector committed to integrity
  • Brazil’s Supreme Court has become the first in the world to recognise the Paris Agreement as a human rights treaty;

Recent developments, threats and levers for action

Recent developments

  • There is a great opportunity to discuss green and just recovery in Brazil. Some proposals, such as Climate and Development and Green New Deal Brazil, present a good starting point for this debate.
  • Environmental agenda will play a relevant role in the elections. 80% of Brazilians believe that care for the forest needs to be among the candidate’s priority agendas (in the Amazon, 82% answered yes) and 58% of Brazilians are more likely to vote for a presidential candidate with a specific plan to protect the Amazon (PoderData)

Strength

  • New government, committed to climate action
  • Great potential for Green Economic Recovery
  • Low dependence on fossil fuels for electricity Economy-wide NDC

Opportunities

  • Quick reduction of deforestation in the short run, through reestablishing governance and command-and-control function
  • The new government prioritizes social causes, which can contribute to advancing the discussion on just transition and reducing inequalities

Weaknesses

  • The environmental dismantling in recent years was severe, which will impact the reconstruction of environmental policies and governance
  • Highly divided society may hinder progress on climate plans implementation
  • New Congress (2023-2026) lost important allies in the environmental agenda

Threats

  • Opposition has majority in Congress and will seek to approve anti-climate laws

About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots

The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, the Ukraine-Russia war and growing climate change impacts, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term. The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP28.

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