What should Brazil do?

1

Enhance its NDC to be 1.5 degree aligned by COP26:

  • Including an emissions reduction target of at least 46% on 2005 levels (excluding LULUCF) by 2030 aiming to achieve net-zero emissions by 2043 and an emissions reduction target of at least 75% on 2005 levels (LULUCF considered)
2

Build a just and resilient recovery plan:

  • Investments and support for forestry sector, housing and energy efficiency and infrastructure that address other social and economic issues, like deficit in sanitation and gaps in logistics
  • Implement and improve public policies for low carbon agriculture reformulation and medium-term plans for the ABC Plan, to be launched in 2020)
  • Public bailouts and subsidies for oil and gas and the automotive and aviation industry based on fossil fuel consumption

What you need to about Brazil?

The Summary of Brazilian NDC

1

Brazil pledged to cut 37% emissions below 2005 levels in 2025, and indicatively 43% below 2005 in 2030 (including LULUCF)

2

Brazil aims to have 45% of renewables in the energy mix by 2030; non-hydro renewables in power at least 23% by 2030

2/3 of the total emissions in Brazil comes from deforestation and agriculture

Fires in Brazil’s Amazon the worst in a decade.

Deforestation rates remain high in Brazil.

A low carbon, climate resilient economic recovery in Brazil could deliver:

2000000
new jobs
535
increase in GDP

Recent developments, threats and levers for action

Recent developments

  • China’s decarbonization plans are expected to impact Brazil in some way, as China is its main trading partner
  • Sao Paulo is giving signs of willingness to electrification of bus fleets. This could be a game changer in the demand acceleration of zero emission transport
  • Agribusiness is the key sector to push for NDC implementation: pressure from international media, business sectors and financial institutions to condemn Brazil for inaction in tackling deforestation would send a solid message that Brazil can lose markets and competitiveness if it doesn’t implement its NDC and combat deforestation
  • The Biden presidency may isolate Brazil if the country does not have strong commitments and concrete actions on deforestation and Green Recovery
  • The financial and private sectors are moving to take more and more into account climate commitments, which can impact mainly in Brazil and in the international trade of commodities
  • Brazil has great potential for green economic recovery, taking advantage of its clean energy matrix and its forest assets and low carbon agriculture
  • Brazil’s new NDC (submitted in December) actually weakened its existing 2015 target in relation to total emissions: although the Government kept the same percentage of emission reduction (37% and 43% based on 2005 emissions), it changed the 2005 base line. As a consequence, under the new target, Brazil’s emissions in 2030 could be 27% higher than they were when it ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016
  • Brazil’s updated NDC includes a conditional commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 (if financial resources are received starting in 2021)

Strength

  • Great potential for Green Economic Recovery
  • Low dependence on fossil fuels for electricity
  • Economy-wide NDC

Opportunities

  • Financial players and subnational actors willing to become climate champions in Brazil
  • Brazil is highly dependent on commodities trade and therefore sensitive to external pressure
  • Discussion on Climate Emergency at the National Congress
  • EU-Mercosur trade agreement and other bilateral arrangements

Weaknesses

  • A negationist and non- transparent government
  • No plans for green recovery

Threats

  • Strong economic crisis, with risk of recession (high carbon easy solutions may convince)
  • Environmental administration and civil society under attack, with reduced power of influence
  • Destruction of legislation and environmental governance

About Climate Diplomacy Snapshots

The data is clear. Accelerated and enhanced action is needed now to build resilience and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As they seek to address the ongoing health, economic and social impacts of COVID-19, governments should seize opportunities to invest in a recovery that will build social, economic and climate resilience on the long-term.The Climate Diplomacy Snapshots aim to provide the climate community with a clear overview of what each country should do, on climate and recovery, to pursue these joint objectives and keep the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each has been prepared with the help of national experts, and will be regularly updated. The snapshots aim to support climate advocacy in the lead up to COP26.

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