Following two weeks of negotiations, UN Climate Change Conference – COP25 has been concluded with a decisión taken on Sunday morning.

Governments have failed to respond to the emergency of the climate crisis as the talks fell victim to major differences between countries that are proving hard to resolve..

The UNFCCC released the following new negotiating texts this morning. On first analysis, observers complained that the text was weak on ambition. One said: “I didn’t think the [Chilean] Presidency could make the text any weaker – but they did.”

Observers of the summit in Madrid held G20 countries – especially with the US, Brazil, Australia, Saudi Arabia – and major oil, gas and coal companies responsible for undermining the climate ambition and blocking the progress for better response to this global challenge.

Canada, Japan, China and India were also faulted for their complacency as they failed to support vulnerable nations in the face of brutal impacts and push for a more robust collective response in 2020. The EU tried to play its role as bridge-builder between developing and developed countries. However, it will take a major diplomatic push and bigger leadership alliance to deliver substantial outcomes at COP26 in Glasgow.

2020 climate plans: strengthened urgency text directly pointing to emissions gap.

COP25’s final decision text “re-emphasizes with serious concern the urgent need to address the significant gap between the aggregate effect of Parties’ mitigation efforts in terms of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 (…)”, at the same time that it “stresses the urgency of enhanced ambition in order to ensure the highest possible mitigation and adaptation efforts by all Parties.”

Despite this, the text is generally very circular (i.e. no clear one-sentence statement “in light of climate urgency encourages parties to submit enhanced NDCs in 2020”).

Carbon markets:

Negotiators failed to reach an outcome on carbon markets. In the final hours of negotiations, over 30 governments joined behind the San Jose Principles in an effort to preserve the integrity of carbon market rules and prevent loopholes and the ability for double-counting carbon credits.

Loss & Damage:

Santiago network established to lead more work on implementation to minimize, avoid and recover from loss and damage. However, the final text is weaker than the previous version.

In term of finance, it “urges” scale up of support by developed countries and other Parties in a position to do so, as well as private and non-governmental organizations, funds and other stakeholders; but then only invites the Green Climate Fund (GCF) Board to continue providing resources for loss and damage, and invites it to take into account, within its mandate, the strategic workstreams of the WIM Executive Committee.

Oceans & Land

New UN work to commence on the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action; as well as in land and climate change adaptation-related matters.

Last night:

COP25 went into extra time last night in what late night observers said looked like a stalemate on key issues. At an early evening press conference, Chilean presidency coordinator Andrés Landerretche said he was “generally moderately optimistic” that a deal could be reached.

In the early hours, a diverse group of countries, led by Costa Rica, published a set of benchmarks for the carbon markets, or Article 6, track of negotiations. They called these “San Jose Principles a “minimum” signal of ambition. They were apparently intended to push back against Australia and Brazil, which want to transfer Kyoto-era carbon credits and allow “double counting”, respectively.

The UNFCCC released the following new negotiating texts this morning. On a first analysis, observers complained that the text was weak on ambition. One said: “I didn’t think the [Chilean] Presidency could make the text any weaker – but they did.”

News:

Climate Home News: “Australia and Brazil carbon credits will put 1.5C out of reach, ten countries say”

Reuters: “Big polluting countries faced last-ditch pressure from smaller nations to show serious commitment to fighting climate change as negotiators battled into the early hours of Saturday to salvage a result from a fraught U.N. summit in Madrid.”

Climate Home News: “Negotiations at the UN climate talks are going into extra time as diplomats are at loggerheads over commitments to boost ambition and rules to set-up a new global carbon market.”

New texts:

RM text 
PR text
1/CP.25 text
1/CMA.2 text

Today and yesterday:

In Brussels: EU leaders (minus Poland) agreed on a 2050 climate neutrality target. It says all relevant laws and policies to be consistent with climate neutrality “while respecting a level playing field”. And the council “welcomes and supports” the European Investment Bank’s plan to support EUR 1-trillion in climate and environmental sustainability investment from 2021 to 2023.

Small island states had strong words yesterday. They called Australia a “black sheep” for its wanting to carry over millions of Kyoto-era carbon credits. “At this stage, we are being cornered. We fear having to conceded on too many issues that would undermine the integrity of the Paris Agreement,” said Carlos Fuller, AOSIS lead negotiator.

African states had strong words today. They demand high ambition that cuts emissions and supports them financially as they bear the brunt of climate impacts: “We won’t accept a lot of changes in the spirit of the Paris Agreement. This is really our red line, because we don’t want to compromise more on the development of our countries. Hopefully we have good news [after tonight], otherwise we can postpone the celebration for another year.”

In the news:

Climate Home News: “Trading carbon is widely said to make emissions cuts cheaper. But for whom? And why is it dominating climate diplomacy in Madrid?”

WATCH: Scott Morrison ‘completely rejects’ criticism of Australia’s climate policy

Australia Institute: “No legal basis for Australia’s carbon credit carry-over”

SMH: “Australia’s carbon trickery stoking India to pollute”

Today:

Fight back: Today at COP25, the world’s most vulnerable are pushing back out against the “few very influential parties” that “have stymied” negotiations here.

– The African Group of Negotiators, 11:30 in Chiloe on Africa’s view of the state of negotiations, and the enormous costs some expect it to carry to adapt to climate impacts, that it did not cause. (Postponed – we will update soon)

– 12:30 Amazon indigenous leaders, in Mocha. Expect more of the same.

– Citizens assemblies: a democratic response to reconcile climate action with social justice. 14:30, MOCHA. With Laurence Tubiana (European Climate Foundation), French citizens and assembly member Pierre from Metz, Dr Katherine Kramer (Christian Aid).

– And again, 15:00 Alliance of Small Island States ministers in Chiloe. They will “highlight what and who stands in the way of progress”.

In the news:

Australia: The Guardian reports on new analysis that Australia is relying on Kyoto Protocol credits and “[reneging] on a pledge to make deeper emissions cuts”.

Japan: Yesterday, Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi seemed stung by statements about Japan’s “coal addiction”.

Sunshine? “Planned extraction of coal, oil and gas is already enough to blow past the 1.5C target. And it is the big producers – US, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Russia and others – who consistently work to undermine even the demand-side restrictions the Paris deal encourages.”

“European Green Deal”: At 13:00 CET, the European Union will announce in Brussels a deal that would make it the first ever climate-neutral major economic bloc, and what that means through 2025. But its proposal for higher 2030 targets will only come in “summer” 2020, not long before COP26. It includes finance, just transition support and more.

“Low ambition”: An alliance of countries including Marshall Islands, Costa Rica, Norway, Bhutan, Germany, Grenada, Luxembourg and Sweden demanded on Tuesday that countries deliver tougher climate targets. “A few very influential parties have stymied efforts” said the Alliance of Small Island States.

Influence: COP25 observers explain that Saudi Arabia, Australia and Brazil are not agreeing on tougher safeguards for carbon markets. The US, EU and other developed nations are not coming up with new forms of finance to support poorer nations on loss and damage. India, China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and other emerging economies don’t want to commit to new carbon cuts.

Chevron $10bn write down: Oil company Chevron is writing down its asset value by more than $10-billion, signalling worries about the long term value of oil and gas.

US and Saudi Arabia rank bottom of new global climate action rating.

Pakistan is working on plans for a domestic carbon market.

Dutch government to ban coal from 2030, climate envoy tells COP25.

Youth activist Greta Thunberg criticised leaders this morning, said “almost nothing is being done”.

Carbon Markets: The carbon markets (Article 6) discussion has started to heat up. There are six issues on the table: the transition to the new carbon markets regime, double counting, overall mitigation potential, accounting and governance and, of course, the financial angles. Still no new text as of this morning.

The Ambition Decision: The parties are expected to deliver boosted climate plans in 2020. How will they provide those plans? Key headline decisions underlining ambition will be crucial to set 2020 agenda.

Headlines of yesterday:

More than 600 asset managers demanded to end countries’ $5.1 trillion fossil fuel subsidies. The investors have $37 trillion assets under management.

Chile to present climate law targeting net-zero by 2050

Peru, Ecuador indigenous leaders protest Amazon oil drilling

COP26 host city Glasgow targets carbon-neutral future

Today:

Michael Bloomberg and Harrison Ford are here: They will present the new report about America’s Pledge at 16:15 at US Climate Action Center in the COP25 venue in Madrid.

Japanese civil society is protesting Japanese coal policies with inflatable Pikachus at 10:30 – outside of the venue.

The High Ambitious Coalition will hold a press conference at 17:00 at Chloe Press Conference Room.

After a week of technical negotiations, national ministers and other high-level delegates arrive at COP25 today. Their job is to reach compromises and break the deadlocks left for them by negotiating teams.

Watching closely will be the estimated 500 000 people who marched through Madrid on Friday night, led by 16-year old climate activist Greta Thunberg (organisers estimated 500 000 while the Spanish government estimated 15 000). Also watching will be the one million people who recently marched in Santiago, Chile, and many more climate and social justice protesters around the world.

“You cannot have radical transformation without people being at the centre of the processes that plan it,” Climate Action Network International executive director Tasneem Essop told COP25 journalists last week. “The level of ambition in this COP must reflect the ambitions and demands of the people on the street, the poor, the vulnerable. We have a duty to ensure that what gets done here is what is needed out there.”

But many say the urgency on the streets was not matched in the halls of COP25, where countries’ technical teams haggled over their already established positions and reportedly gave little ground.

Experts suggest there has been a little progress on Article 6 (carbon markets), but not much. Parties are reportedly far from finding compromise positions on mobilising finance and support for loss and damage. And reports from an informal roundtable indicate that countries have very different ideas about what it would mean to enhance their nationally determined contributions by 2020.

9:00: “Brazil at COP25: A Dialogue on Climate Ambition”. Ricardo Salles (Minister of Environment) Davi Alcolumbre (President of the Federal Senate) Joenia Wapichana (Federal Deputy, tbc), Fernanda Hassem (subnational governments), Caetano Scannavino (civil society), Luiz Cornacchioni (private sector), Karina Penna (youth). Brazil Climate Action Hub Blue Zone, Pavilion 8.

10:30: Greta Thunberg, Luisa Neubauer and other youth climate activists (Mocha press conference room, Hall 4). Livestream here

14:00: media huddle with Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation and key architect of the Paris Agreement, next to media centre.

19:00: US Climate Action Reporter Reception, at the US Climate Action Center, hall 6 (with food and drinks)